Flux Rope Modeling
Advancing CME Forecast using the 3D Coronal Rope Ejection Model
At the Austrian Space Weather Office, I am working with the semiempirical 3D flux rope model 3DCORE introduced by Andreas Weiss in Weiss et al. 2021a, 2021b.
3DCORE
Flux ropes are coherent magnetic structures embedded in coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These structures are typically modeled as coherent magnetic flux ropes, allowing to reconstruct and predict their magnetic field configurations and trajectories through space. Understanding their behavior is key to predicting the impacts of solar eruptions.
3DCORE builds on this concept by assuming:
- A toroidal shape with a Gold-Hoyle-like magnetic field.
- Self-similar expansion during propagation.
- Interaction with the solar wind modeled via a simple drag model.
The model includes parameters such as the CME’s launch velocity, magnetic decay rate, and aspect ratio to simulate complex effects like the flattening of flux ropes during propagation. While its simplicity enables real-time applications and large ensemble runs, limitations like a fixed flux rope width and constant solar wind speed require careful interpretation.
Advancements and Applications
I developed a graphical user interface (GUI) for 3DCORE, available via GitHub, to make it accessible to the broader scientific community. This tool facilitates both event reconstructions and analysis, as well as forward modeling. 3DCOREweb and its applications are detailed in my publication (Rüdisser et al., 2024), where it was used to study trajectory effects and the global magnetic field structure of CMEs.
At the Austrian Space Weather Office, I integrated 3DCORE into the real-time prediction pipeline for operational CME forecasting. Additionally, we are working on short-term forecasts, another critical application of the model. My involvement in several collaborative papers has further refined the model’s use for event analysis (e.g. (Zhuang et al., 2025), (Weiler et al., 2025), (Davies et al., 2024), (Long et al., 2023)).
This work is part of my PhD project, titled Combining AI and Physical Models to Advance Forecasting of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections, under the ERC project HELIO4CAST, which attempts to solve the Bz problem in heliospheric space weather forecasting.
By enhancing 3DCORE and its applications, I aim to advance our understanding of CMEs and their potential impact on Earth.
References
2025
- Under RevisionInfluence of the Deformation of Coronal Mass Ejections on Their In-Situ Fitting with Circular-Cross-Section Flux Rope ModelsSolar Physics, 2025
- Under Revision
